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Search Engine Spider Emulation – Advancing Our Knowledge of Hockey Through Statistical Analysis
Body: #8211; Advancing Our Knowledge of Hockey Through Statistical Analysis
Advancing Our Knowledge of Hockey Through Statistical Analysis
Privacy Policy
Are we predicting the future or analysing the past?
February 7, 2016
David Johnson
So, yesterdays post created an interesting, and mostly positive to my delight, response. Credit goes out to Matt Cane who hit the nail on the head in figuring out the response I was looking for. @hockeyanalysis So I think a key point to note here is that CF% shows a lot more consistency within season. 鈥 Matt Cane (@Cane_Matt) February 6, 2016 @hockeyanalysis Split half correlation for CF%: F: 0.74/D: 0.69 Split half correlation for Sh%: F: 0.10/D: 0.05 鈥 Matt Cane (@Cane_Matt) February 6, 2016 @hockeyanalysis Over 3 year periods you #8217;re correct, CF% does have a lot of other
raquo; Read more
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Observed stats are bad, regressed stats are good
February 6, 2016
David Johnson
That #8217;s what I have been told. The fact that you are still basing your arguments on observed data means that, even now after at least six years of exhortations from successive generations of people who have tried to work with you and help you, you do not understand what it means to regress your data. I refuse to engage any longer till you learn to do this. #8212;Benjamin Wendorf Under the threat that Benjamin Wendorf will never engage with me again (how could I live with myself if that happened), I decided that I must finally investigate this regression thing
raquo; Read more
Hockey Analysis, War on Ice and the future of stats sites
January 17, 2016
David Johnson
The big news in the online Hockey Analytics community yesterday, aside from the Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference, was the Andrew Thomas announcement that will be shutting down in the upcoming months. Although in many respects War on Ice was a competitor to my site ( and it was also a great site that was developed for different reasons and served a different purpose. My sites were developed by myself over time largely as a hobbyist and a blogger. I started in 2005 after the #8216;lost season #8217; lockout as a way to further enjoy my love of hockey
raquo; Read more
What baffles me most in hockey analytics
January 14, 2016
David Johnson
I am always astonished by how much I get critiqued about shot quality and whether it exists or not and whether it is important or not. I get even more criticism聽if I ever bring up the idea that defenders can have an ability to boost save percentage. To me this is the most baffling thing I have come across in hockey analytics. Let me explain why. I would hazard a guess that everyone that criticizes me about my belief in shot quality and ability of players to drive shooting or save percentages absolutely believes in score effects. This is why
raquo; Read more
Are you adequately accounting for Shot Quality in your Expected Goals model?
January 13, 2016
David Johnson
The other day on twitter I questioned whether an existing expected goals model by @DTMAboutHeart聽adequately accounted for shot quality. This tweet it seems prompted a response from the Hockey Graphs crew in which they all take turns downplaying the importance or shot quality. We already know that the impact of shot quality (context + skill) is miniscule in comparison to other factors #8211;pet bugs The question to ask then is: 鈥渨hy does shot quality have so little relative impact on long-term results?鈥 #8211;rjessop I didn #8217;t intend to start a debate on shot quality, I was simply expressing my
raquo; Read more
Muzzin, Phaneuf, and the impact of roles on possession stats
January 8, 2016
David Johnson
The other day I wrote about what I hope for from hockey analytics in 2016. It largely focused on more investigation into聽the impact of coaching and specific roles players play have on individual statistics. For the most part hockey analytics has developed by looking at what team statistics correlate well with team success and then transferring those observations to player evaluation (i.e. Corsi correlates with winning so good players should have good Corsi numbers as well). While transferring what we know from the team level to the player level has聽merit one problem I have is we have largely treated players
raquo; Read more
One comment
Schenn, Jones, Weber and Sv%RelTM
January 6, 2016
David Johnson
I get criticized a bit (I might even say mocked) for suggesting that defensemen have the ability to influence their goalies save percentages. It surprises me some because聽to me the idea that defenders can #8217;t is just a bit far fetched. A defender that turns the puck over a lot at key moments has to have a negative impact on his goalies save percentage. Conversely one who doesn #8217;t would boost his goalies save percentage. Unfortunately we live in a Corsi world these days and these ideas get criticized, if not mocked. Today though saw the trade of a pair of defensemen
raquo; Read more
One comment
My hope for Hockey Analytics in 2016
January 4, 2016
David Johnson
The last couple of years have been eventful for the hockey analytics community聽and hockey analytics has definitely gone main stream. The past year or so has seen some interesting developments including more investigation into shot quality (Scoring Chances by war on ice, expected goals from @DTMAboutHeart, etc.)聽, some interesting enhancements in goalie evaluation, and the passing project led by Ryan Stimson has shown some interesting results and could provide many more interesting insights into the game. All that said聽there is one area where I hope will get more attention from the analytics community in 2016. Impact of Coaching and
raquo; Read more
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Forward Usage and Stats by TOI Rank on Team
December 19, 2015
David Johnson
The other day I posted an article on evaluating defensemen by their ranking on their team. In this article I am going to do the same but for forwards and focus on the offensive side of the game. I grouped forwards in a similar way to how I grouped defensemen. Specifically, this is my methodology: I used 5v5close data to eliminate score effects I used data from the first two thirds of the season (first 820 games of the season) because few trades occurred before that point in the season. Trades can mess up rankings of players and how do
raquo; Read more
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More on Evaluating Defense by Rank on Team
December 13, 2015
David Johnson
The other day I wrote a post on evaluating forwards and defensemen based on their rank on their team. The purpose of that post is to show the value in breaking down performance beyond just Corsi but into Corsi For/Against and shooting and save percentages. I wanted to expand on that by looking at past seasons to see if there are trends that emerge. In the previous post I ranked players on their team based on their total ice time because that is what Travis Yost did in his post on I don #8217;t believe this is the best methodology
raquo; Read more
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Welcome Welcome to, where I strive to get a better understanding of the game of hockey through the use of statistical analysis. I hope you enjoy whatever time you spend here and maybe even learn a little. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to drop me an e-mail at david (at)
Recommended Websites
Introduction to Advanced Hockey Statistics
Maple Leafs Hot Stove
Top Articles on Hockey Analysis
Are coaches any good at identifying defensive players?
Do zone starts really matter and if so, how much?
Does higher Corsi Against rates boost Save Percentage?
Estimating Standard Deviation in On-ice Shooting Percentage Talent
Evaluating SCF and HSCF and our ability to quantify shot quality
Importance of Quality of Competition/Teammates
Introducing Rush Shots
Is 4v4 overtime hockey a crap shoot we can or should ignore?
Possession, Shooting Percentage and Outlier Teams
Relative importance of Corsi and the other 42%
The Coaching-Corsi Dilemma
The declining value of fenwick/corsi with increased sample size
The effect of QoC on Stats:Pavel Datsyuk vs Valtteri Filppula
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Zone starts and impact on players statistics
Zone Starts, Corsi, and the Percentages
Recent Posts
Are we predicting the future or analysing the past?
Observed stats are bad, regressed stats are good
Hockey Analysis, War on Ice and the future of stats sites
What baffles me most in hockey analytics
Are you adequately accounting for Shot Quality in your Expected Goals model?
Recent CommentsDavid Johnson on Observed stats are bad, regressed stats are goodKevin on Observed stats are bad, regressed stats are goodRupert on Hockey Analysis, War on Ice and the future of stats sitesBryan Paynter on What baffles me most in hockey analyticsRavenfrog on Hockey Analysis, War on Ice and the future of stats sitesPages
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